The second round of negotiations between the US and Iran, expected to get underway between today and tomorrow in Islamabad, is overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding divisions within the Tehran regime.

Many observers believe that the war has shifted the center of gravity of power even further toward the regime's hardline, intransigent wing — which includes the Pasdaran and their current Commander, Ahmad Vahidi — and certain "grand old men" who have, for now, survived the Israeli-American steamroller. Two names stand out above all: Saeed Jalili, a former minister under Ahmadinejad and adviser to the then-president, today a member of the Expediency Council (the body tasked with resolving disputes between the Guardian Council and Parliament); and Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, also a former minister under Ahmadinejad and currently Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, succeeding the assassinated Larijani. This is a bloc — deeply entrenched in Iran's security apparatus and society — that rejects any compromise with the US on nuclear issues and on Hormuz, putting Iran's resilience and its ability to further raise the costs of the war back on the table, should hostilities resume. A hardline stance designed to extract greater concessions from a weakened Trump.

On the other side stands the regime's pragmatic wing — Foreign Minister Araghchi and President Pezeshkian, with Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf (pictured) acting as a bridge — which is acutely aware of the devastation the war has inflicted on the country, exacerbating an already severe economic crisis, and fears that those costs could escalate further if fighting were to resume. In short, a rift — far deeper than it may appear — that the Americans must reckon with.

Trump has already made it clear that without a deal, the bombs will return; but he knows full well that a new, more intense phase of the war could render its cost — already staggeringly high — unsustainable, with incalculable consequences for global economic and financial stability.

In short, a dead end from which it is hard to emerge without broken bones. Everyone's bones, for that matter.