We have now reached the 12th consecutive night of American strikes on Iran, yet Tehran shows no sign of buckling. On the contrary, it has further expanded its target list and sharpened the precision of its attacks. Washington, meanwhile, is reinforcing its military posture across the region and appears to be preparing for a higher-intensity phase.

American strikes are concentrated along 3 main axes. The first is a diagonal line running from northwest to south: from northwestern Iran (Tabriz, Kangavar, Kabudarahang, Kondab) down through the Khuzestan belt (Dezful, Azadegan, Ahvaz, Mahshahr), out to the northern Gulf coast (Kharg island, Bushehr) and inland to Shiraz. The second covers the north of the country: Aqqala, Parchin and the Tehran belt. The third focuses on the Strait of Hormuz and Hormozgan province: Bandar Abbas, Bandar Khamir, the islands of Qeshm, Larak and Hormuz, Jask, Minab, Sirik. On July 21, moreover, the United States resumed strikes on Iran with B-1B bombers deployed to RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom — their previous mission dated back to April 7. On this occasion, 1 B-1 conducted a strike mission using stand-off munitions.

Iranian attacks have broadened as well. In addition to previously hit targets, Saudi Arabia has been struck for the first time since the resumption of hostilities, with a strike on Prince Sultan Air Base. The heaviest blows, however, continue to fall on Kuwait and, above all, Jordan.

In Jordan, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was hit, with damage to hangars — 2 hangars for MQ-9A REAPER drones destroyed and 1 damaged, 2 fighter hangars destroyed and 2 damaged — and to housing facilities. King Faisal Air Base saw 1 hangar and 1 housing building destroyed, while Prince Hassan Air Base had a helicopter hangar damaged. Aqaba airport, which hosts P-8 maritime patrol aircraft and C-130 cargo planes, was also attacked, though it is unclear whether any impacts were scored. Along the Syria-Jordan border, the strike hit Tower 22 — where the contingent previously stationed at Al Tanf is now deployed — with severe damage to the housing area. In Kuwait, strikes hit Camp Arifjan and Camp Buehring, Ali Al Salem Air Base, and Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base, where 1 long-range AN/FPS-117 radar was destroyed. In Bahrain, Sheikh Isa Air Base was struck with ARASH drones launched by the Artesh, along with the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet — or what remains of it. Finally, in Iraq, 1 tent hangar was destroyed at Erbil Air Base.

Satellite imagery and strike videos — some released directly by US personnel stationed on the targeted bases — reveal the striking precision of the Iranian raids and the ease with which a handful of missiles punch through the American air defense shield, a pattern already noted last week. In the most recent attacks, Iran appears to be focusing on housing areas and on drone and fighter hangars, seeking to make the cost of the American presence in the Middle Eastern theater unsustainable.

The strategy is producing results. Washington has reshuffled its posture in-theater, relocating tankers and helicopters — and apparently a number of fighters as well — from the most exposed bases to locations deemed safer. Al Udeid has been effectively emptied, going from around 20 tankers to zero over the past week. The roughly 90 KC-135 and KC-46 tankers deployed to the Middle Eastern theater (14 of them KC-46s) now operate from the Israeli bases of Ramon — where 24 are stationed, some of them evacuated from Al Udeid — and, likely, Ovda, as well as from Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, which also hosts an E-3 AWACS component, from Aqaba airport in Jordan, and from the Emirati base of Al Dhafra. A number of tankers have also taken off again from Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv, though it is unclear whether these were operational sorties or repositioning flights. Around 40 additional tankers are deployed to European bases — Chania in Greece and NAS Sigonella in Italy — and to the airports of Mihail Kogalniceanu in Romania and Sofia in Bulgaria. Recent days have also seen significant C-17 cargo traffic from the United States and Europe toward the area of operations, particularly to bases in Jordan.

Newly arrived in-theater are 5 KC-135 tankers, 2 EA-37B COMPASS CALL electronic warfare aircraft, 1 E-11A BACN, 6 F-16 fighters redeployed from Aviano to Prince Sultan, and, reportedly, 6 additional A-10 aircraft in Jordan.

The only "proximity" base still hosting a frontline component appears to be Al Dhafra in the UAE, where F/A-18 and F-35 fighters remain deployed — likely 1 squadron of each.

Worth noting, finally, that the large MQ-4C TRITON ISR drones, after a week-long pause between July 13 and July 20, have resumed operations, though from Sigonella rather than from bases in-theater.

The conflict remains below the threshold of open war, but the margin is narrowing. The emptying of the most exposed bases, the growing flow of C-17s into the theater, the concentration of tankers on the few sites still considered secure, the return of the B-1s and the arrival of electronic warfare and airborne C2 assets outline a posture geared toward higher-intensity operations than the current phase. It is a sequence of movements that echoes, in part, the one observed on the eve of Operation EPIC FURY.

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