The 72-hour truce, put in place to guarantee the safety of the U.S. delegation led by Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, has expired, and Russian strikes on Kyiv have resumed. Overnight, missiles and drones hit the capital and its surrounding areas, as well as other regions of Ukraine not covered by the truce.

According to data released by the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia employed a total of 24 KH-101 cruise missiles launched from TU-95 strategic bombers, 10 ISKANDER-K cruise missiles, 16 ISKANDER-M ballistic missiles, roughly 6 KN-23s, and, reportedly, a couple of ZIRCON hypersonic missiles — around 60 missiles in total, roughly 30 of which targeted the capital alone. Most of the cruise missiles were intercepted, partly by ground-based air defenses — the SAMP-T, NASAMS, and IRIS-T SL — and partly by F-16 fighters.

Mixed in with the missiles, as usual, were several GERAN-4 jet-powered drones. These are increasingly replacing the notorious GERAN-2, especially for deep strikes and attacks on targets in the Kyiv area. GERAN drones are becoming more accurate and lethal thanks to cameras and computer-vision systems for autonomous terminal guidance, as well as MANET radios for mission coordination, optimization, and data transmission to operators.

In the capital, at least a couple of large columns of smoke were still visible this morning, rising from the Podil and Lukyanivka districts. Logistics-related targets were also hit in Boryspil, Fastiv, and Bila Tserkva, in the surrounding Kyiv Oblast.

Moscow is thus keeping up the pressure on Ukraine's political heart, betting on a strategy of coercion meant to soften Zelensky's negotiating positions and erode his domestic standing. So far, however, the strategy has yielded no results, not least because Russia is itself under systematic Ukrainian deep strikes targeting its oil, gas, and refining infrastructure — this very morning, for instance, Ukrainian drones struck the refinery in Saratov, in the oblast of the same name. It is a counter-coercion strategy that keeps the war in balance: the balance of attrition.

Follow us on Telegram, Facebook and X.