In a move that signals some change in Serbia's political-military landscape, the country has finalized a €2.7 billion deal to purchase 9 single seat and 3 dual-seat Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft. This acquisition marks a pivotal moment in Serbia's defence strategy and foreign policy orientation, with far-reaching implications for its position in the Balkans and its relationships with global powers.

According to Le Figaro (magazine owned by Dassault Group), deliveries are to be completed by 2028. Albeit not specified by official communications, it is likely that they will come in the F4.1 standard, expected to reach full operational capability by 2025.

The F4.1 standard brings enhanced electronic warfare capabilities, improved communication systems for better interoperability, and advanced information exchange capabilities among Rafale aircraft, targeting pods, and radars. Notable additions include the Scorpion Helmet Viewfinder and passive threat detection systems, which were not present in the previous F3R. The F4.1 also features enhanced control system capabilities for guided munitions and increased connectivity with other systems through new intra-patrol and satellite links, as well as communication servers. Furthermore, it includes radar and sensor upgrades that facilitate the detection of airborne stealth targets at long range, making it more effective in network-centric warfare scenarios.

The decision to procure the Rafale reinforces the departure from Serbia's traditional reliance on Russian military technology. For decades, Serbia has primarily sourced its military hardware from Russia, a reflection of the strong historical and cultural ties between the two nations. However, in the past few years, Serbia had already been diversifying its military equipment sources. According to the SIPRI yearbook figures, in 2023 Serbia’s largest arms suppliers were China with 43%, Russia with 30% and Belarus with 20%. The country has also been investing heavily in its domestic defence industry, with plans to spend significant amounts on locally produced weapons and equipment.

In recent years, France and Serbia have been strengthening political-military ties. Belgrade had already procured 9 Airbus H-145M helicopters (and probably a follow-up order for further 11), 50 MBDA MISTRAL surface-to-air missile systems, and 10 Thales GROUND MASTER Radars (3 GM-400 and 7 GM-200). This new agreement with France indicates an additional strategic diversification of Serbia's defence procurement sources, suggesting a recalibration of its international alignments, as underlined by the official statements.

Although some see Serbia opting for the Rafale as a symbolic step towards closer alignment with Western powers and NATO countries, looking at the big picture this step confirms Serbia's long-standing policy of military neutrality. Given Russian involvement in the Ukrainian war, Serbia seeks to balance its relationships with various global powers, taking some distance from Moscow, yet without embracing the US-led world. Indeed, while strengthening ties with France and potentially the broader European Union, Serbia is likely to maintain its important connections with Russia and China.

Albeit French president Emmanuel Macron tried to put a European label on the signature of the contract and reiterated that Serbia had "its rightful place" in the EU, only France and French companies are involved.

Éric Trappier, Chairman and CEO of Dassault Aviation, declared: “On behalf of Dassault Aviation and its partners, I would like to thank the Serbian authorities for the confidence they have placed in us by choosing the Rafale, and assure them of our total commitment to making its integration into the Serbian Armed Forces a success. Serbia's decision to equip itself for the first time with a Dassault aircraft confirms the Rafale's operational superiority and its proven excellence in serving the sovereign interests of a nation”.

In fact, one of the most powerful selling arguments is that the procurement of French Rafale allows countries to bypass potential US embargoes or sanctions. While not a NATO standard aircraft, the Rafale can integrate with both Western and Eastern weapon systems. France has shown flexibility in technology transfer and Dassault has shown willingness to adapt the Rafale to specific customer needs. Choosing the Rafale allows countries to modernize their air force - the Rafale has demonstrated its effectiveness in actual combat operations - without explicitly aligning with US, Russian or Chinese foreign policies, thus offering a more neutral political stance. Unlike US arms sales, which often come with political conditions, French sales typically have fewer strings attached in terms of foreign policy alignment.

To conclude, Serbia's decision to purchase French Rafale fighter jets signifies a careful recalibration of Serbia's political-military posture, reflecting a complex balancing act between historical ties, current geopolitical realities, and future aspirations. As Serbia navigates its path between East and West, this move underscores its commitment to modernize its positioning, yet maintaining as many options as possible on the table and without embracing a rigid geopolitical block. As the Rafale will replace Serbian Mig-29s, the future replacement of indigenous Soko J-22 ORAO and Soko G-4 SUPER GALEB will likely provide further hints on Serbia’s posture and ambitions.

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