Over the past four weeks, Moscow forces have been advancing again in Donbas, at an increasing pace over the past 15 days, particularly in the direction of Pokrovsk, and are now less than 10 km from the city. Pokrovsk is an important road and rail crossroads and logistical hub for the entire front running from Bakhmut to Vuhledar.

Evacuation operations from Pokrovsk have already begun and, given the proximity to the Russian troops, it appears that the railway line is no longer being used by Kiev forces for supplies. The 'rapid' Russian advance in Donbas, which has seen Moscow's troops successively conquer the areas west of Novoselivka Persha, and the settlements of Niu-York, Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka and Novohrodivka, can be attributed to a number of factors.

First, Russian forces benefited from a significant numerical superiority in the aforementioned frontline areas. Specifically, the manpower issue prevented the Kiev forces from having the necessary reserves to contain and stem the Russian advances, as they had no possibility of moving fresh forces into the areas of greatest Russian pressure. Numerical superiority was achieved in particular after the Ukrainian troops were forced to move into the Kharkiv Oblast to contain the Russian incursion in May, and was further exacerbated by the decision to deploy some 15,000 troops to 'bring the war to Russia', with the operation in the Russian Kursk Oblast inaugurated on 6 August. In addition, some of the Ukrainian units deployed along the Donbas front, such as the 47th or 33rd Mechanised Brigade, have now been engaged in combat for several months, with little opportunity for rest and rotation, and are therefore exhausted.

The second factor, partly related to the first, was the shortage of hardened, well-structured and deeply staggered fortifications and defensive lines, the construction of which following the fall of Avdiivka was not effective, partly due to the shortage of men (as well as the short time available and Russian artillery fire now too close). Moreover, the shortage of manpower prevented the Kiev forces from maintaining the necessary operational density along the front line. In this regard, it must be emphasised that, in several areas of the front line, Ukrainian forces essentially abandoned their positions due to the impossibility of defending them and in order to preserve precious resources (especially soldiers), retreating to rear positions (as mentioned above, not well structured) and thus leaving the field open for the Russians to advance. This occurred in particular between 3 and 7 August in the area west of Novoselivka Persha, between 16 and 19 August in Niu-York, and between 25 and 27 August in the area north of Karlivka.

Lastly, there were some problems in the Ukrainian chain of command, both at brigade and battalion level, as pointed out by various pro-Ukrainian sources, a problem that had already occurred north-west of Avdiivka, in particular at Ocheretyne, and was cleverly exploited by the Russians to gain ground. We now come to a more in-depth analysis of the various sections of the front. In the area north of Avdiivka, i.e. along the right flank of the current Russian line of advance (travelling in an east-west direction towards Pokrovsk), Moscow forces occupied several positions east of the M30 highway, in particular at Niu-York (abandoned by Kiev forces and occupied by the Russians around 20 August, after about two weeks of fighting), and in the direction of Toretsk (with the area east of the city taken and Moscow forces now on the outskirts, after about 20 days of attacks). In the area west of the M30, however, the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade, assisted by Territorial Defence units, held the front, and no particular Russian advances were recorded. The Ukrainian forces thus managed, at least for the time being, to prevent Russian troops from threatening the T0504 road linking Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka, keeping open an important route between the Pokrovsk and Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar fronts.

Moving eastwards, the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 151st Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade (plus a couple of infantry units), on the other hand, had to retreat to the second defensive line, abandoning the village of Novohrodivka (occupied by the Russians on 29 August). This last and most successful line saw Moscow forces advance some 15 km in 20 days (from Novoselivka Persha to Novohrodivka). About 6 km to the south, the Ukrainian defences, centred on the town of Selydove and held by the 78th Assault Regiment and the 117th Mechanised Brigade, are currently under attack from the northeast, with Russian troops now on the eastern outskirts of Selydove, having captured Mykhailivka on 29 August.

Also in this area, the Russian 114th Motorised Rifle Brigade advanced southwards, capturing the villages of Kalynove and Memrik (27 and 28 August respectively), with the 25th Ukrainian Airborne Brigade falling back on the village of Ukrains'k, the defence of which, however, seems difficult due to the absence of structured defensive positions. The eventual fall of Ukrains'k would bring Moscow's forces behind the main Ukrainian line in this sector, centred on Hirnyk, Kurakhivka and Vovchenka, forcing at least two Ukrainian brigades located between Karlivka, to the north, and Krasnohorivka (conquered by the Russians on 25 August), to the south, to fall back in a westerly direction (west bank of the Vovcha river) to avoid encirclement from the north.

The main problem for the Ukrainians in this area of the front is that the defence lines are oriented in an easterly and southerly direction and are therefore not prepared for an attack from the north. The solution might be to fall back on the town of Kurakhove (located 15 km south-west of the current line of contact), protected to the north by a reservoir formed by the Vovcha river and to the south and east by lines of trenches and hardened positions. Just to the east of Kurakhove, Russian troops advanced from Marinka towards the town for a couple of kilometres, settling near the penultimate defensive line before the town. In essence, therefore, Russian troops continue to advance in a westerly direction and along the left flank (towards the south), while along the right flank there are no particular successes so far.

Moving, finally, to the Vuhledar sector, Moscow forces have almost completed the capture of Kostiantynivka, with the 79th Ukrainian Air Assault Brigade abandoning the town and falling back to Katerynivka (about 4 km to the west); O0532 to Vuhledar is therefore now under Russian control.

On the whole, since the fall of Ocheretyne in early May, Russian forces have continued to gain ground slowly but at an increasing pace (particularly in the last 2-3 weeks), bolstered by superior manpower and firepower (artillery, but also FABs with correction kits and range extensions), and, although the human and material losses are significant, they still seem to have momentum. In the past four months, Moscow forces have advanced about 20 km westwards, with a salient now about 17 km wide (north-south).

(Image: Map showing the Russian advance over the past 4 months. In red is the previous front line, in green the current one).

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