The Israeli operation conducted on Tuesday 17th, with thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploding simultaneously in different areas of Lebanon (and Syria as well!), was followed yesterday by a second operation that saw hundreds of communications devices such as VHF/UHF radios and walkie-talkies explode.

In the latter case, it appears that the explosives were placed inside the batteries, perhaps taking advantage of a recent battery order placed by Hezbollah, as in the case of the pagers.

Specifically, according to figures provided by the Lebanese Ministry of Health, about 3,000 people were wounded in the first attack (about 100 were airlifted to Iran to receive medical treatment) and 12 died, while yesterday saw 20 killed and 450 wounded. According to Hezbollah, 473 of its members have been killed by Israeli forces since October 2023.

In essence, the first operation involved a greater number of Hewbollah affiliates but was less lethal, while the second operation involved fewer but resulted in more deaths. As can be verified from the numerous pictures and videos available, radios contained significantly more explosives than the pagers, hence the greater lethality.

In addition to the thousands of Hezbollah members wounded in Lebanon, it appears that about 100 Iranian military advisers (IRGCs) in Syria were also involved in the attack, with at least 20 killed in the ranks of the Pasdaran. With this exceptional intelligence operation, Israel has achieved 3 goals: it has disarticulated Hezbollah's chain of command and control (it will take time to get certain mechanisms and procedures back on track); it has injured more than 2,000 fighters, a significant number of whom permanently; and it has instilled paranoia and fear.

The latter is perhaps the most important element, and probably the main goal of this unique operation. What else should Hewbollah's fighters expect? What else is Israel capable of? Disturbing questions that may have a major psychological impact on the group's reserve and mobilization component, on which depends part of its ability and resilience in large-scale conflicts, as well as Nasrallah's options on the table.

In essence, Israel is sharply enhancing its deterrent, now more robust than ever, leaving its adversaries in dramatic uncertainty. Will this be enough to prevent an invasion of Lebanon and calm down the 'hawks', too?

The events of the last 2 days, combined with the various proclamations of the Israeli political and military leadership about a “new phase of the War” and “shifting the center of gravity northward,” actually suggest that an Israeli operation in southern Lebanon might be imminent. Added to this is the fact that, after several weeks of intense Israeli Air Force activity in southern Lebanon (several targets were bombed again yesterday), something is beginning to move on the ground as well. In the past few days, in fact, the 179th Reserve Brigade and the 769th HIRAM Brigade conducted massive brigade-level training activities simulating combat operations in Lebanon, including maneuvers with armored vehicles.

In addition, yesterday (Sept. 18) the 98th Parachute Division, after months of operations in Gaza under Southern Command, was transferred to the north of the country, where it joined the 36th Division. Both formations are now under the Northern Command.

The 98th Division consists of 3 paratroop brigades (the 35th, and the 55th and 551st from the Reserve), the 89th Commando Brigade, and 1 artillery brigade; the 36th Division consists of 2 infantry brigades (GOLANI and 6th from the Reserve), 2 armored brigades (7th and 188th), and 1 artillery brigade.

The circumstances around the launching of leaflets by the IDF in South Lebanon urging the local population to leave the area on Sept. 15 were also clarified: this was allegedly an initiative not authorized by the Central Command and carried out by a Commander of the 769th Regional HIRAM Brigade through the use of a drone. Meanwhile, ground operations continue in Gaza, particularly in the south of the Strip, and there continue to be several casualties in Israeli ranks, 4 in yesterday alone, with the total now rising to 350 since the beginning of the invasion. Moreover, the 5th Reserve Infantry Brigade has been deployed in recent days in the central part of the Strip, along the Netzarim corridor.

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