As we partly anticipated on FW-MAG, Israel is capitalizing on the previous days' actions against Hezbollah. This morning saw the largest wave of Israeli air strikes in Lebanon since the 2006 War.

IDF sources spoke of 150 strikes against Hezbollah targets in the south of the country (mainly in the districts of Tyre, Nabatiyeh, and Marjaayoun) but also in the Bekka Valley. At the time of writing, another wave of attacks is underway. Among the targets are launchers and positions for rockets and drones, warehouses, ammunition depots, etc. In some videos released on social networks, explosions with secondary detonations are clearly visible.

Since the pager attack, the IDF and Hezbollah have extended the range and intensity of their operations. The Party of God has not only hit settlements and military facilities in northern Israel but has gone as far as launching drones and rockets towards Haifa and the central belt of the country. At the moment, however, the damage is relatively modest. A strike against the Ramat David air base seems to be confirmed by satellite images, but the damage appears to be limited; another strike against a Rafael site, also claimed by Hezbollah, has not been confirmed.

The IDF, on the contrary, strike hard and continue to put significant pressure against the military structure of the Party of God, managing in several cases to prevent the launching of rockets and/or missiles. This is thanks to a kill chain that is proving to be a real steamroller with extraordinarily compressed reaction times.

The persistent and systematic reconnaissance of the drones, combined with the work of the satellites and the excellent HUMINT on the ground, guarantees an uninterrupted flow of information in real time in favour of the 'shooters': pairs of fighters always on combat air patrol, ready to intervene on targets and threats before they materialise. F-16s (pictured), F-15s and F-35Is are used indiscriminately. The latter - as we understand it - are also used for NT-ISR (Non-Traditional ISR) tasks, exploiting their great autonomy and sensor technology, and operating in 'circuit' as armed reconnaissance platforms: staying on patrol long enough, survey, and strike accurately.

The powerful Northrop Grumman APG-81 AESA radar and EOTS electro-optical system ensure accurate terrain mapping and tracking even of moving targets. This is especially effective thank to small theatre size and short distances and the absence of anti-aircraft defence, which means operational persistence and excellent ToT (Time on Target) rates.

To Hezbollah militiamen, it is extremely risky to activate and operate rocket launchers without being discovered and hit. AI modules implemented in the kill chain allow analysis, correlation and identification of hundreds of targets in real time. This ensures that the whole process is automatic and extremely fast. In short, Hezbollah at the moment can really do very little against an enemy on high alert and with intervention mechanisms that seem to work perfectly.

It is clear, however, that in the event of an Israeli invasion of South Lebanon, the scenario would change (the more time passes, and the more Hezbollah weakens, the more the likelihood of this scenario increases). At that point, the conflict would move to a different plan, with a land scenario where Hezbollah can "play it out" with its guerrilla and counter-guerrilla tactics, and where, as we have seen in part also in Gaza, the limits of the booths on the ground emerge.

After Hamas' strategic surprise on 7 October 2023, Israel is progressively reconstituting its deterrent, which is significantly changing the strategic equation governing relations between the Jewish State and the so-called Iranian-led Axis of Resistance.

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