Tonight, as officially confirmed by the IDF in a communiqué, the first Israeli ground operations into Lebanon began. In action were elements of the 98th Division - paratroopers of the 35th and 55th Brigades and forces of the 89th Commando Brigade - supported by units of the 7th Armoured Brigade (part of the 36th Division), all previously engaged in Gaza and now redeployed to the north.

Operations started after the IDF declared some areas in the north of the country 'offlimits' and prepared the ground with artillery fire against some Lebanese villages in the border area, probably using M-109A5 DOHER tracked self-propelled vehicles in service with the 282nd Artillery Brigade (36th Division).

Currently, according to Lebanese sources, the Israeli raids are limited to the Governorate of Nabatiye (south-west Lebanon) and the IDF commandos would have gone about ten kilometres deep into the Lebanese territory. In parallel, Israeli Air Force fighters bombed the refugee camp of Ain al-Hilweh (near Sidon), south Beirut (Dahiyeh) and, although not officially claimed, also Damascus (Al Mezzeh).

As of now, we are unable to anticipate what kind of action the IDF will pursue. Israel still retains a wide margin of unpredictability which, combined with the disproportionate nature of its response to the enemy offence, contributes to progressively strengthening its deterrent. For now, we observe many small incursions into the Lebanese territory by paratroopers, special forces and commandos. These granular assaults multiply the IDF's lines of action, leaving room for multiple options to Israel while disorientating the opponent. Assault units may regroup later, when and if necessary. Their action is supported with artillery and tanks used as close-in self-propelled howitzers as well as by the Air Force's fighters and drones. In brief, present operations look like a distributed manoeuvre whose objective is to confuse the enemies, track them closely and expose them to converging precision fire from howitzers, drones and fighters.

Current raids will likely stimulate Hezbollah's reaction and will reveal its actual military capability after weeks of heavy attrition. Notwithstanding Israeli disruptive actions, the Party of God cannot in be underestimated. Hezbollah's fighters know the terrain and are deeply rooted in the territory, thus being able to organise counter-fire actions and guerrilla tactics effectively.

In addition, it is possible that thousands of Shia fighters from Syria, Iraq and Iran might flow into Lebanon. This is certainly a card that Teheran could decide to play to counterbalance Israeli unpredictability.

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