According to UAC - the Russian aerospace conglomerate that includes the main Russian aerospace companies (MiG, Sukhoi and Tupolev) -  the KnAAPO plant in Komsomolsk delivered to the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) a new batch of Su-57 FELON (the 2nd this year, after last September's) and Su-35S FLANKER fighters (the 4th in 2024 after those of April, May and September).

To be accurate, deliveries were completed on November 10, but their beginning would date back to at least a couple of weeks earlier (probably the last ten days of October), after the completion of the usual series of preparatory tests before their assignment to Air Force departments.

As it is often the case, neither the communiqué nor the attached photo/video material make it possible to establish with certainty the number of aircraft delivered, although the common Russian practice is to have batches of 2/4 aircraft.

Regarding the Su-57s, in light of this new batch and according to the information available, the Russian Air Force would deploy between 23 and 27 FELONs, delivered in 5 years, and specifically a single fighter received in 2020, 8 in 2022, between 10 and 12 in 2023 and between 4 and 8 delivered this year.

These aircraft could be joined by another 2/4 by the end of 2024, for a total of around 30 Su-57s. This is a quite acceptable figures, yet far from the target set in 2019, which envisaged 76 aircraft to be delivered by 2027. A target that would require an annual production of 15 aircraft, which is currently difficult to achieve because of the continuous production issues concerning component procurement and the resolution of certain shortcomings, such as those related to the propulsion system.

Indeed, all the FELONs delivered to date are still equipped with the old Saturn AL-41F1/Izdeliye 117 turbofan engines, while the first examples equipped with the new AL-51F/Izdeliye-30 propulsion system should start to be delivered in 2025, probably between May and July, after the presumed recent conclusion of the interminable series of tests. The new engines will have a twin-shaft architecture and will consist of a 3-stage fan driven by a single-stage low-pressure turbine and a 5-stage high-pressure compressor driven by a single-stage high-pressure turbine. Another difference from the AL-41F1 is the presence of fibreglass turbine blades and nozzles with serrated fins for radar signature reduction. These features should increase efficiency in terms of reducing fuel consumption by 12.5 per cent in subsonic flight and increase thrust to 15,000 kg from the current 14,000 kg, all at the same weight.

It is not yet clear whether there will be redesigned thrust vectoring nozzles with a more flat/flat shape, and turbines with high use of ceramic components and new electrical and digital control systems.

Net of the aforementioned delays and gaps, however, the interest of foreign customers in the Su-57 seems to remain strong. In this regard, Russia sent two prototypes - one of which static - to the recent Chinese airshow in Zhuhai, during which some rumours concerning potential buyers of the FELON surfaced.

In addition to these rumours, the CEO of Rosoboronexport, Alexander Mikheev, signed a contract with an unspecified foreign country for the supply of an unspecified number of FELONs in the SU-57E variant, a suffix designating the export version of a Russian weapon system, usually accompanied by a capacitive downgrade in comparison to the Russian version.

If we want to give credence to such claims (other identical ones have taken place over the last 4/5 years on both the Su-57 and the MiG-35) currently the only candidate with some basis of realism appears to be Algeria, a country that already expressed a certain interest in the aircraft 3 or 4 years ago, also confirmed by several visits to the Komsomolsk plant and inspections of the aircraft by senior Algerian Air Force officers during the 2019 and 2020 MAKS shows. It is also true that Algeria has been mentioned for 5/6 years for the possible acquisition of Su-34s, which to date has never taken place, while over the last 2 years it has been associated with the purchase of Su-35S initially planned for Egypt and then ‘diverted’ to Iran, but never delivered due to Tehran's precise requests, which to date have not been met, to obtain training and support to manage its fleet of FLANKERs as autonomously as possible.

In light of these requests, the alleged Algerian interest in these aircraft has resurfaced. The rumours of Chinese interest seem even less realistic, considering the availability of indigenous J-20s and J-35s which have little to envy the FELON in terms of capabilities, and which are produced in a much shorter time frame than their Russian counterparts. It would make no sense at all to Chine to procure a third ‘5th’ generation aircraft, which moreover is not Chinese and presents different production difficulties.

The Indonesian track is very unlikely, but for different reasons, as Jakarta already struggles iin financing the KF-21 BORAMAE in which they are partners with South Korea. It is unlikely that Indonesia might be able to acquire a squadron of SU-57s.

A possible customer could be North Korea, perhaps through exchange agreements for the practical support Pyongyang is providing Moscow with 10/12,000 troops, hundreds of ballistic missiles and dozens of artillery pieces.

Finally, a few years ago, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were also approached about the Su-57, an interest that Abu Dhabi showed after the US rejection of a possible Emirati entry into the F-35 club. Obviously, this situation was exploited by Moscow in search of a munificent partner that could help develop the FELON and produce it in acceptable numbers.

As of today, considering the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, especially the US sanctions under CAATSA, a country willing to purchase a Russian weapon system should also be able to pursue a policy independent from the West, capable of ingoring any friction arising from such a choice thanks to a stable revenue stream or a solid financial availability. These are all elements that are, in whole or in part, also reflected in the possible UAE customer.

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