Israel and the new geopolitics in the Middle East 18/12/2024 | Pietro Batacchi

One can argue about the methods - which led the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for war crimes against him - but Nethanyau's geopolitical achievements are undeniable.

After the resounding debacle of October 7, 2023, which questionned its deterrent, Israel reacted with rational irrationality, reverting to being that mad dog that responds to provocations with disproportioned violence.

Such a reaction has been deemed necessary to re-establish a deterrent that had been blatantly challenged. And so it was. Israel has imposed an unsustainable cost on its enemies: Hamas and Hezbollah have seen their organisation, resources, and infrastructe completely disarticulated and have suffered a blow from which they will never recover,.

Iran has shown all its impotence and the limits of its patronage policy, while Syria is no more.

In short, the so-called Axis of Resistance has been heavily hit in 2 of its branches and has seen the disappearance of the central link, Assad, the hinge of that geopolitical space that stretched from Theran to Beirut.

Furthermore, Israel's message to the new rulers in Damascus, and to its protectors in Ankara, is very clear: there will be no return to the previous ‘game’ and dynamics. A message delivered in two ways: through the destruction of the infrastructure of the former Syrian Army and the expansion of a buffer zone to the west of the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, and to the south towards the borders with the province of Deraa.

Hence, Nethanyau seized the opportunity offered by 7 October and changed the geopolitics of the Middle East by altering the status quo in accordance with his own interests. He did this by force, like it was done in the old days of power politics.

Of course, there is still one piece missing to complete the picture, and that is to disrupt Iran's nuclear programme, but there is time for that. We will see what happens after January 20, 2025...

It is clear that everything discussed so far has a cost. First of all economic, with the heavy repercussions suffered by a small and dynamic economy such as that of the Jewish State and the systematic dependence on Washington's support, which, however, will never fail, given the special nature of the relations between the 2 countries.

Then, there is the question of the political sustainability of this design: how far can Israel go? How long can a solution to the Palestinian question be postponed? How long can the illegal colonies in West Bank be tolerated?  These questions certainly concern the international community as a whole, but, above all, Israeli society itself.

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