
After more than two years of stalemate, with one office remaining vacant, Lebanon has its new President, the Commander of the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces), Joseph Aoun.
In the end, the Shiite bloc - Hezbollah and Amal - gave in, renouncing its candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, nephew of the former President at the time of the outbreak of the Civil War (Suleiman Kabalan Frangieh) and man of former Syrian President Assad, and converging its votes on Aoun.
Lebanon is thus trying to turn the page after a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah, and an endless economic crisis. Aoun is one of the very few personalities in the country outside the sectarianism that has tragically marked its history.
Close to the US, where he honed his military training, and to some extent to Saudi Arabia, Aoun led operations against ISIS and al Nusra in the east of the country, tried to maintain a kind of national neutrality for the LAF, and was one of the key actors to facilitate the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He now finds himself leading a country on its knees, in which, however, the big news is the downsizing of Hezbollah, which came out of the confrontation with the IDF with broken bones, orphaned of Assad and the Syrian logistical background, and with the Iranian support very weakened.
The outcome of the presidential elections clearly shows that in a year, the Party of God has seen its ‘grip’ on Lebanese institutions and political life considerably reduced, and with it its negotiating weight.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's room for manoeuvre has grown, as it has conditioned its financial assistance - which the country desperately needs - on the election of a "friedly" president. In short, a new chapter in its history may be opening for Lebanon, but there are still many questions about the country's future.
The ceasefire with Israel has yet to be consolidated, while the unwieldy and exuberant neighbour has also expanded its influence in Syria, as much from a territorial as from a political-strategic point of view, signalling its unwillingness to accept a ‘normally’ armed and sovereign Syria (at least until we understand what the policy of the new rulers of Damascus will be).
And then, Iran that, once the storm has passed, could return to pulling its strings in the region, including Lebanon.