The Labour administration has forced through its deal with Mauritius to settle the controversy over the sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, a group of 7 archipelagos, currently uninhabited, that comprise the strategic atoll of Diego Garcia with its important UK-US base.

The deal was forced through on the very last day of sitting of Parliament before the Whitsun recess and signed in the afternoon after a pause ordered at the 11th hour by the High Court because of a legal action attempted by the surviving Chagossians and descendants.

A bit of history is necessary: the British Government was approached by the United States in 1963 about the use of Diego Garcia as a strategic base in the Indian Ocean. The UK welcomed the US request and proceeded to agree a formal "detachment" of the islands from the then british colony of Mauritius. Although the islands and Mauritius actually had very feeble actual connection, they were administered for convenience as part of the colony of Mauritius, which was established in 1810 when british troops took it from France. Previously, the territory now known as Mauritius, including the remote islands in the middle of the Indian Ocean, had been part of the French “Ile de France” colony.

The formal “detachment” was agreed by the british government with the government of the Mauritius Colony. A 3 million pounds sun was paid to Mauritius as part of the agreement, which saw the islands become the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) on 8 November 1965. Mauritius would eventually became independent on 12 March 1968.

The small population (circa 2,000) of Chagossians was removed in the following years to make way for the base at Diego Garcia. Many now reside in the UK. In recent times, Mauritius began a series of initiatives at the United Nations to protest the creation of BIOT, insisting that the detachment was not carried out with proper regard for the principles of self determination.

A non-binding Advisory Opinion was delivered on 25 February 2019 by the International Court of Justice supporting Mauritius position that the detachment “was not based on the free and genuine expression of the will of the people concerned”. In May the same year, the UN General Assembly recorded a vote of support for the ICJ advisory opinion which demanded the UK withdraw from the Chagos within 6 months. 116 voted in favour, 6 against (Australia, Hungary, Israel, Maldives, United Kingdom, United States), with 56 abstentions. Despite the non-binding nature of these events, the previous UK government had initiated talks with Mauritius to try and reach a deal, but without making progress in front of demands judged unacceptable.

The new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with a background as an international rights lawyer and personal friendships with figures in the Mauritius legal team, has decided that the UK is “at risk” of facing binding rulings in the future against its sovereignty over BIOT and dramatically accelerated the negotiations, concluding this deal.

The UK will not only hand over BIOT to Mauritius, despite the objections f those who note that the claim of Mauritius to the island is at best dubious to start with, but will pay huge amounts of money in order to “rent” back Diego Garcia for 99 years, with an optional extension of a further 40 years already envisaged in the agreement.

The annual payment value for the first 3 years of the Agreement is 165 million pounds, followed by yearly payments of 120 million in the years 4 to 13. From year 14 onwards, the 120 million will be subject to adjustments for inflation.

In addition, the UK will also pay Mauritius 40 million for a fund to be used “for the benefit of the Chagossians” and a further 45 millions in development assistance will be paid to Mauritius each year for 25 years.

The “surrender” has unsurprisingly drawn fury at home, as has the incredibly clumsy attempt to downplay the extent of the financial costs of the agreement. Starmer has been referred to the UK Statistics Authority for a formal investigation after he told the public that the deal’s cost is “3.4 billion pounds” by offering a deflated figure comparing today’s money value to expected lower future values due to inflation.

Most, if not all of the expenditure for leasing back Diego Garcia is to come directly out of the Ministry of Defence’s budget, and despite Starmer’s attempts to downplay the impact, Defence is going to suffer. The first 3 year of Mauritius payments will require more money than the circa 500 million that are estimated to be saved “over 5 years” with the cuts announced in November 2024 and which have seen the withdrawal from service of 1 Type 23 frigate (HMS Northumberland), 2 ALBION-class LPDs, 2 WAVE-class tankers, the PUMA HC2 helicopter fleet, the WATCHKEEPER drones and 14 CHINOOKs retired early.

A simple examination of the 2024 Major Projects Portfolio of the MOD provides another measure of the true weight of these yearly payments. Out of the 50 projects detailed in the report, 15 have their expenditure hidden for commercial reasons, plus one has virtually zero expense as it was just started at the time of publishing. Of the 34 major projects remaining in the list, only 14 spend more money per year than the MOD will pay to Mauritius.

How much pain this will cause to the British armed forces will be discovered in the future. The Chagossians in the UK feel just as betrayed, having campaigned long and hard to be allowed to resettle the islands rather than have them handed over to a third country they do not recognize as their own and that provides dubious perspectives for a return to the area. Their very latest legal attempt to have the deal blocked, as we said earlier, resulted in a temporary suspension, but the UK government rushed the deal through as soon as the High Court gave them an opening in the afternoon of the same day.

The true implications for the security of Diego Garcia will only be discovered over time. The Agreements commits Mauritius to respect a 24 nautical miles buffer zone around Diego Garcia which is, however, of little comfort in this day and age of technology.

The installation of other sensors of facilities beyond the 24 miles (on the other islands of BIOT essentially) will require a “security review” by Mauritius, in which the UK will be able to make its concerns heard.

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