Overnight, more than a dozen Russian drones violated Polish airspace. The Polish Air Force, with NATO allies’ assistance, responded by shooting them down. This marks a serious and unprecedented escalation, signaling a dangerous new level of escalation.

The breach occurred during a massive Russian drone and missile strike on western Ukraine. According to Kyiv’s Air Force, Russia launched 415 drones — around 250 SHAHED and a number of GERBERA/decoy drones — alongside roughly 40 Kh-101 and KALIBR cruise missiles. Between 8 and 14 of these UAVs crossed into Poland from Ukraine’s Lutsk Oblast: some entered near the Lutsk–Lviv border area, others along the Lutsk–Belarus border, with at least two reportedly flying in directly from Belarus. These drones, part of the broader raid on Lviv, Lutsk, Zhytomyr, and Ivano-Frankivsk, had been launched from Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts. Given the number that crossed into Polish territory, the intrusion appears intentional — likely aimed at testing Polish and NATO air defense systems, reaction times, and procedures, and possibly as a counter to Ukraine’s alleged use of Baltic airspace to strike Russia with drones. It remains unclear whether the intruding UAVs were strike-capable (GERAN) or merely decoys.

Following the first incursions, Warsaw issued a NOTAM and temporarily closed four airports: Warsaw, Lublin, Rzeszow, and Modlin. At least two drones were shot down east of Zamosc (roughly 40 km from the Ukrainian border), while one struck a house in Wyryki (20 km from the Ukraine–Belarus border). Another was found near Mniszkow, about 250 km from Ukraine, and identified from photos as a GERBERA decoy drone — though possibly carrying a small 5 kg warhead.

An additional element emerged earlier this year: in July, Polish journalist Marek Budzisz reported that several Russian drones shot down in Ukraine carried dual SIM modules for guidance and data transmission — one of them Polish, another Lithuanian. This suggests Moscow had long been preparing for such operations, potentially equipping drones with Polish SIMs to ensure functionality inside Poland.

Air defense operations involved not only Polish fighters and a Saab 340 AEW&C patrolling between Lublin and Rzeszow, but also Dutch Air Force F-35s and an A-330 MRTT tanker from Eindhoven, as confirmed by Polish authorities. The Netherlands has been part of NATO’s enhanced Air Policing in Poland since September 1, 2025. Flight tracking data showed the Dutch tanker flying between Krakow and Rzeszow, at one point refueling what appeared to be a USAF F-35 — though it was more likely a Dutch aircraft.

A Norwegian Air Force detachment is also reportedly deployed in Poland under NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) effort, first reported by FwMag in July. In addition, an Italian Air Force G-550 CAEW was tracked in Polish airspace. The aircraft had taken off from Ämari Air Base in Estonia, where since August 1 it has been operating alongside Italian F-35As (32nd Wing) and an Army SAMP/T battery as part of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission.

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