In recent days, in an interview published by the BBC, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister, General Ivan Havryliuk, declared that he expects the acquisition of JAS-39 GRIPEN fighters for his Air Force in addition to further French MIRAGE 2000-5s and F-16Cs.

However, timescales and the number of aircraft have not yet been disclosed. This news has been awaited for some time - and which we had already anticipated on FW MAG - and whose officialisation, as well as the acquisition procedure, was frozen in May '24 pending the delivery and entry into service of the F-16Cs and, subsequently, the MIRAGE 2000-5s, according to a sort of timeline established following operational and, above all, political priorities.

In reality, Stockholm has downplayed this by speaking of "interest and open dialogue" without officially confirming the acquisition. But the feeling is that this is a diplomatic move that nonetheless suggests a "work in progress" that will come to fruition.

As mentioned, it is currently unclear how many aircraft will be transferred to Ukraine. It is likely that these will be 10-15 JAS-39Cs belonging to the first production batches and in reserve/stowage with the Swedish Air Force. It is difficult to envisage a larger number in the short run, considering the fairly limited number of GRIPENs currently in service in Stockholm's fleet (71 JAS-39Cs, 23 twin-seat JAS-39Ds and just 3 JAS-39Es). As a reminder, the JAS-39A/Bs of the first batches can also be upgraded to C/D standard if necessary, with up to 64 airframes available (according to FW MAG information), but the upgrade would take some time. 

Therefore, the timescales are considerably more complex and will hardly be less than 12 months. That said, unlike the other 2 fighters, the GRIPENs probably represent the platform best suited to the operational requirements of the Ukrainian Air Force for at least 3 operational reasons. The first is that the Swedish aircraft is based on a maintenance and logistics system with an extremely contained footprint in terms of costs and quantity of equipment and personnel. Furthermore, it was designed to operate agilely from improvised/dispersed strips and motorway sections (not exceeding 800m) based on an established requirement of the Swedish Air Force, perfectly applicable - and already applied - by the Ukrainians to avoid Russian missile and drone attacks that constantly target fixed runways, fuel depots and armoured shelters. A fleet capable of moving between motorway sections or austere sites, refuelling from trucks and being rearmed by small teams complicates Russian targeting and compresses the Ukrainian kill chain against airborne targets near the front lines (see also FW MAG 1/2024).

Finally, the JAS-39s are capable of being armed with long-range METEOR air-to-air missiles (150/200 km under ideal launch conditions, i.e. at high altitudes and supersonic speeds) which would make them much more effective in BVR interception (even if launched from low altitudes against targets at higher altitudes, as in the case of Russian fighters on CAP/SEAD missions) of Su-34 tactical bombers and Russian FLANKER and MiG-31 fighters compared to the FIGHTING FALCONs and MIRAGEs which have, respectively, AIM-120B/C AMRAAMs (100/120 km range) and MICA EM/IR (90 km).

The provision of METEORs, however, represents a major unknown, considering the limited quantity of missiles currently available and the still limited production rate. Yet, as additional elements in favour of the GRIPEN, their full integration with the 2 SAAB-340/ASC-390 AEW&C aircraft acquired by Ukraine (the first of which was delivered last April), the presence of SAAB personnel in Ukraine for the necessary support activities for the aforementioned ASC-390 platforms, as well as the training activity of Ukrainian pilots in Sweden for flight training on the GRIPEN carried out between September 2023 and August 2024.

Certainly, the fact remains that managing a combat line based on 6 different aircraft (F-16, JAS-39, MiG-29, MIRAGE 2000, Su-24 and Su-27) will not be easy, especially for a nation at war, although there are several Air Forces that find themselves in the same situation, see Egypt and India. 

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