On October 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that, “due to the testing programs of other countries,” he had instructed the Department of War to “begin testing our nuclear weapons on a parity basis… immediately.”

The suggestion of a potential return to nuclear testing came only hours before Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The summit took place against a backdrop of escalating tension between the United States and China, with arms control talks frozen since July 2024 following U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly. The March 2025 Threat Report, published by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, stressed that China is “determined to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear posture.” Since 2020, the Department of Defense’s annual report to Congress has highlighted a steep increase in Chinese warhead numbers - around 200 in 2020, projected to reach 400 by 2030. In 2022, those estimates were revised upward: 700 deployable warheads by 2027 and 1,500 by 2035.

Russia, for its part, has continued to modernize its strategic arsenal, replacing Soviet-era ICBMs with newer systems and developing innovative nuclear delivery platforms. Much of this effort has been driven by Moscow’s concern over its ability to penetrate U.S. missile defenses. In 2018, President Vladimir Putin unveiled several advanced systems designed specifically to bypass American defenses, including the BUREVESTNIK (RS-SSC-X-09 SKYFALL) - a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed intercontinental cruise missile - and the POSEIDON, a large, unmanned underwater vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead.

Both BUREVESTNIK and POSEIDON were reportedly tested in the days preceding Trump’s statement. It is therefore plausible that these Russian tests triggered Trump’s announcement, suggesting that his reference to “parity” was aimed precisely at these developments.

Resuming nuclear testing would mark a major strategic and financial shift for the United States, likely prompting other nuclear powers to resume active testing as well - especially Russia, though its ongoing war in Ukraine would make an expensive new technological race in the nuclear domain difficult to sustain. This, of course, assuming that Trump’s post was to be interpreted literally.

Even if that were the case, the President’s authority in this area is not absolute. He holds the legal power to initiate such actions, but would still require Congressional authorization and funding, which could limit or condition his ability to proceed. Another institutional constraint is the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the Department of Energy responsible for the maintenance and stewardship of the U.S. nuclear warhead stockpile.

With so many questions still open regarding Trump’s statement, observers can only await further clarification. What is certain is that, in response to Trump’s post, President Vladimir Putin instructed his top officials on November 5 to draft proposals for a possible Russian nuclear test.

This is how an arms race begins — through cycles of action and reaction in which nuclear capability serves not only as a tool of pressure, but also as a potential means to end a conventional conflict.

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