At around 23:00 last night, the city of Lviv was struck by an ORESHNIK intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), reportedly equipped with conventional (or inert) warheads.

This marks the second use of this weapon against Ukraine, following the strike on Dnipro on 21 November 2024. The missile is believed to have been launched from the Kapustin Yar cosmodrome (Astrakhan Oblast), approximately 1,600 km from Lviv. Several videos show the impact of at least 6 MIRV warheads (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles). While we are unable to independently confirm this, multiple Russian and Ukrainian sources report that the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske gas storage facility in Stryi was hit. The site lies some 50 km south of Lviv and about 80 km from the Polish border - a clear signal to NATO. The use of the ORESHNIK, while constituting - much like the Dnipro strike - an escalatory and demonstrative act, would in this case have hit, if confirmed, a high-value target: the Stryi gas storage facility.

The use of the ORESHNIK was also confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence, which framed the strike as retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian drone attack against Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region on 29 December - an attack denied by Kyiv and its allies and one about which we remain sceptical. It should also be recalled that in December 2025 the Russian MoD had “publicised” the deployment of an ORESHNIK system to Belarus.

The ORESHNIK is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (with a range of up to 5,500 km) with nuclear capability, most likely derived from the RUBEZH IRBM (RS-26, or SS-X-31 in NATO designation), and featuring multiple independently targetable warheads, each of which can in turn be equipped with submunitions.

In parallel with the ORESHNIK launch, Russia conducted a large-scale attack against Ukraine - particularly Kyiv - using more than 240 drones, including GERAN-2 and GERBERA decoy UAVs (220 reportedly intercepted, according to the Ukrainian Air Force), 22 KALIBR cruise missiles launched by naval units (2 frigates and 1 submarine) from the Novorossiysk area (10 intercepted, according to Kyiv), and 12 ISKANDER-M ballistic missiles, all directed at the capital (8 reportedly shot down). As for targets, 3 combined heat and power plants in Kyiv - CHP-4, CHP-5 and CHP-6 - were struck by missiles, while several GERAN-2 drones hit residential buildings, a railway facility and a number of electrical substations. Between 4 and 6 KALIBR missiles reportedly struck unidentified targets in Mykolaiv Oblast. Power, water and heating outages are being recorded in Kyiv, particularly on the western bank of the Dnipro. According to Mayor Klitschko, around 500,000 people are currently without electricity, and roughly half of the city’s apartment blocks are without heating.

In Dnipro Oblast, power supply appears to have been restored this morning, while Kryvyi Rih remains without electricity at the time of writing.

Overall, last night’s attack on Kyiv indicates that - also in light of the sharp drop in temperatures across Ukraine (−16 °C in Kyiv) - Russia has resumed large-scale strikes against the country’s energy infrastructure, particularly the capital’s CHP plants, which provide both electricity and heating. The objective is to further pressure the Ukrainian civilian population and erode support for the country’s leadership, already weakened by a major corruption scandal that, among other consequences, led to the resignation of Yermak as Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine in late November 2025. That high-profile post is now held by Budanov, the former head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (Main Intelligence Directorate, HUR).

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