The third edition of the World Defense Show (WDS) opened yesterday at the Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center, some 70 km from the capital, in the heart of the desert. The WDS has continued to grow and is now firmly establishing itself among the world’s leading defence exhibitions - an unmissable event for industry professionals and for those seeking a deeper understanding of the strategic and military dynamics affecting Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, and, more broadly, the Middle East.

Usual geopolitical drivers are currently impacted by the threat of a new war involving Iran, the United States and Israel, which could have devastating consequences for an already fragile regional stability. At the show, the atmosphere is far from relaxed, and a degree of tension is palpable. Delegations are few and attendance limited, partly due to the Sunday opening, while the indirect talks currently underway in Oman between the US and Iran do little to dispel the prospect of war; many here view them merely as a way to buy time.

The US military build-up in the region continues, and the posture is now robust both in terms of air and missile defence, significantly strengthened after the War of the 12 Days, with new THAAD and PATRIOT systems deployed in recent weeks to protect bases and sensitive targets, and in terms of strike potential. The aircraft carrier LINCOLN, at least 10 destroyers, 2 nuclear-powered submarines, an F-15 wing, numerous tankers, F-35s, and 3 BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) aircraft, among others, are deployed. Time will tell what comes next: deploying such a force merely to apply pressure - only to later withdraw it - would certainly align with the Trump Administration’s motto of “peace through strength,” yet it is undeniable that far less would have sufficed to exert pressure. 

Back to the show, the WDS has grown further compared to 2 years ago: a fourth hall has been added, a dedicated space for drones has been created, and the exhibition now also features a significant static display, arguably even richer than that of the Dubai Air Show. Several USAF aircraft are on display, but the real protagonist is, unsurprisingly, the Royal Saudi Air Force: TORNADO tactical bombers and F-15 heavy fighters, some showcased in special liveries - such as the blue scheme marking the 95th anniversary of the Kingdom’s founding (pictured) - as well as, a real highlight, an armed AH-6I scout helicopter of the Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG).

The true showstopper, however, is the full-scale mock-up of the F-35 bearing RSAF markings. Not only that: immediately adjacent stands the mock-up of the GA-ASI YFQ-42A CCA, also in Royal Saudi Air Force colours. President Trump’s visit last year clearly left its mark and reshuffled the deck: hence the green light for the acquisition of Lockheed Martin’s fighter, together with its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). For the latter, figures as high as 200 units have even been mentioned, as anticipated by General Atomics President David Alexander at the Dubai Air Show last November - we shall see if and how this deal ultimately materialises. What is certain is that Lockheed Martin and General Atomics wasted no time. Moreover, just ahead of the show’s opening, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced US government approval for the potential sale to Saudi Arabia of 730 PATRIOT PAC-3 MSE interceptors, with an estimated value of $9 billion - another tangible outcome of President Trump’s visit. Clearly, this move will have inevitable (negative) repercussions on other fronts, starting with the long-delayed purchase of a second batch of TYPHOON fighters and Riyadh’s potential entry into GCAP.

Looking more broadly at the exhibition, compared to 2 years ago, there is a less striking presence of local conglomerate SAMI: fewer eye-catching displays and fewer models, especially in the drone segment. The Kingdom’s ambitions under the banner of Saudi Vision 2030 must eventually contend with reality, and if one is purchasing 200 CCAs and dozens of AKINCI UAVs, it becomes difficult to speak credibly of strengthening the local industrial base. On the drone front, in particular, what clearly emerges is the absence of a local company comparable to the Emirati ADASI.

The growth of the Turkish presence is, by contrast, striking, with Ankara’s companies now occupying an entire hall on their own. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia have received a strong boost, as evidenced by President Erdogan’s visit to the Kingdom just ahead of the show, during which he put forward the TF-X KAAN fighter. It is worth recalling the mega-contract worth over $3 billion signed with Baykar for the supply of AKINCI super-MALE armed reconnaissance UAVs. Deliveries have begun, the first Saudi operators have already been trained, and construction of a local assembly line is underway.

The Italian presence is also noteworthy. Relations between Rome and Riyadh are excellent, not least thanks to the personal rapport established between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Prime Minister Meloni. Bilateral trade is steadily above EUR 10 billion per year, and business opportunities are numerous and diverse - with defence firmly at the top of the agenda. Positive developments for Italy may also be forthcoming. The first concerns a contract for the supply of 4 C-27J MPA aircraft, which would effectively make Saudi Arabia the launch customer for the armed MPA version of Leonardo’s light tactical transport. Signature of the contract appears imminent - although, as always in these latitudes, nothing should be taken for granted - and would undoubtedly represent a significant boost and a vote of confidence in the platform. The second relates to an Italian-Saudi G2G (Government-to-Government) supply of 8 low-Earth orbit satellites to Saudi Arabia: 4 optical and 4 SAR. Last November, an Implementing Arrangement (IA) formalising the G2G framework between the 2 countries was signed, and discussions are now focusing on the Procurement Agreement (PA)—the contract that, on the Italian side, should be signed by TELEDIFE.

Still within the Italian context, Fincantieri is strongly promoting its new mobile counter-UAV system ANDROMEGA, officially unveiled at DIMDEX just 3 weeks ago. The solution is based on the OMEGA 360 radar - which, it should be recalled, will equip the FREMM EVO figates of the Italian Navy - mounted on a truck-deployable shelter, and paired with two 30 mm cannons (from Turkey’s Unirobotics). Tests are scheduled to take place in Qatar by the summer. Qatar already operates a fixed OMEGA 360 installation for base protection, and negotiations are underway for the supply of multiple systems (20–40 units).

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