Amid Trump statements - the latest being his announcement of a completed regime change in Iran - the US is preparing a potential ground operation. A highly risky undertaking, but one that could become an almost unavoidable choice in order to accelerate the course of the conflict.

In reality, rather than a conventional ground operation in the traditional sense, what is being contemplated is a series of raids conducted along the logic of distributed operations and Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO). The forces the US is currently deploying to the Middle East do not allow for other options. Based on a rough assessment of the open-source evidence available, the US could currently have in theater a brigade from the 82nd Airborne Division (with elements of the 101st Airborne Division) and a special forces brigade (drawing on elements from virtually every unit across the SOF community) - or possibly somewhat more. To this we add the bulk of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (3,500 personnel), which arrived in theater last Friday aboard USS TRIPOLI and USS NEW ORLEANS, while the 11th MEU aboard USS BOXER is still some distance away.

One of the objectives could be Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil export terminal. Seizing it - and holding it - would hand the US a fundamental bargaining chip with which to exert pressure on Tehran. One option would be to paradrop 82nd Airborne troops onto the island, bringing light artillery and loitering munitions, repair the local airport runway - damaged in recent US airstrikes - and thereby enable the flow of additional forces by cargo aircraft. Alternatively, Kharg sits at the outer edge of the CHINOOK helicopter's operational range; these aircraft could potentially use the Nowruz oil platform as a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point). The same applies to the BLACK HAWK. More flexibility is available, of course, for the aircraft of the 160th SOAR (MH-47G and MH-60M), which can be refueled in flight by MC-130J COMMANDO II tankers - several of which have been deployed to the operational area in recent weeks.

Other objectives could include the small islands in the Strait of Hormuz: from the largest, Qeshm, to the smaller Tunbs and Abu Musa, and the strategically significant Larak, south of Qeshm. Here the Marines would also be expected to play a role, conducting vertical and maritime insertions. Critical to the effort would be getting NSM surface-to-surface missiles on their remotized ROGUE 4x4 vehicles and HIMARS rocket launchers ashore, to establish counter-interdiction zones. Abu Musa Island, 70 kilometers off the coast, could serve as a FARP - its local airport runway stretches 2.9 kilometers and formerly operated regular flights to Bandar Abbas - and as a forward launch point. Seizing control of the islands is not enough in itself; they must also be resupplied - hence the critical importance of the runways - and held, since the entire Iranian fires complex will be trained on them. Given the short distances involved, every type of drone and missile must be factored in.

This is precisely why deeper strikes into Iranian territory are also to be expected - in the coastal area around Bandar Abbas, but also in Khuzestan - to "seal off" missile launch areas, or at least a significant portion of them. The picture, then, involves the islands, coastal zones, and launch areas - but the estimated number of US troops currently in the operational theater does not appear sufficient, for the time being, to execute a series of actions of this scope. And needless to say, air support is essential - both to provide cover for the raids and as a counter-battery instrument to degrade the Iranian fire capabilities. The scenarios ahead are, to put it plainly, extremely complex.

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